Beyond the Cycle: Why 21Shares Sees a Different 2026 for Bitcoin

The January Mirage: Why Bitcoin’s Next Big Surge Faces a Brutal Reality Check

The ghost of January past haunts the crypto markets. After a spectacular rally to a then-peak of $109,000 in January 2025, a chorus of investors now wonders: can the magic strike twice as the calendar turns? According to a leading voice in the ETF arena, the answer is a sobering no.

Ophelia Snyder, co-founder of the crypto investment giant 21Shares, delivers a clear-eyed forecast that cuts through the bullish noise. In an exclusive discussion, she casts serious doubt on Bitcoin replicating its dramatic January surge as we approach 2026.  It’s unlikely that the factors driving the current volatility will fully resolve in the short term,  Snyder states, pointing to a market landscape fraught with uncertainty. “A repeat performance next January will depend heavily on broader market sentiment.

Behind the Glitter: The Anatomy of a January Rally

Snyder demystifies the typical January effect, attributing it to a predictable financial rhythm. The start of the year often brings  renewed inflows  into Bitcoin ETFs as institutional and retail investors alike rebalance portfolios, injecting fresh capital and optimism. This mechanical flow helped fuel last January’s historic run, supercharged by a unique political catalyst: the imminent inauguration of President Donald Trump and trader bets on his pro-crypto agenda.

But that was then. The present tells a different story. Bitcoin, after scaling a staggering all-time high of $125,100 in October, has been locked in a pronounced downtrend. The trigger was the seismic $19 billion market liquidation event on October 10th—a shockwave that transformed year-end optimism into widespread caution. Today, trading around $92,150, Bitcoin reflects a market down nearly 10% in a month, grappling with a palpable absence of the positive sentiment that once propelled it.

A Silver Lining in the Correction: Nothing Crypto Specific

Yet, within this cooling period, Snyder finds a kernel of long-term conviction. Her analysis offers a crucial reframe for worried holders.  I am feeling more bullish as I see this most recent correction as a response to a general risk-off sentiment to broader market conditions, rather than anything crypto specific,  she reveals.

This distinction is everything. It suggests Bitcoin’s current pains are not a terminal diagnosis of the asset itself, but a symptom of global economic anxieties. The digital gold narrative is being tested not by a flaw in its code, but by the old-world fears that drive investors away from risk. In this view, the downturn is less a collapse and more a correlation—a sign of Bitcoin’s maturation within the global financial system.

The Twin Forces: Catalysts for Ascent and Abyss

Looking ahead, Snyder maps a battlefield of opposing forces that will dictate Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory. On the side of the bulls, she cites powerful potential catalysts:

1- The expansion of crypto ETFs onto major mainstream financial platforms.

2- Increased adoption and clarity from governments worldwide.

3- A growing demand for digital stores of value beyond traditional gold.

Arrayed against these are the bearish risks that could see Bitcoin underperform:

1- A prolonged risk-off sentiment across all global markets.

2- The continued surprising strength of gold, potentially diverting traditional capital.

3- The unresolved macroeconomic volatility that currently clouds the horizon.

This balanced perspective underscores that Bitcoin’s path is no longer a lonely moon mission but a complex journey navigated by the same tides that move all major markets.

The Contrarian Whisper: A Bet Against the Odds

Snyder’s tempered outlook does not stand unopposed. From another corner of Wall Street comes a defiant counter-narrative. Tom Lee, Chair of the prominent firm BitMine, recently projected that Bitcoin will indeed reach a new high before the end of January 2026. His bet leans on history: since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a return of 3.81% each January, a pattern many hope will hold.

This clash of titans sets the stage for a high-stakes opening to the new year. Will it be a story of sobering reality and interconnected global risk, or can Bitcoin once again defy gravity and convention?

As the final weeks of the year tick away, the market holds its breath. The only certainty is that the ghost of January future will be shaped by far more than crypto alone. It will be a verdict on global sentiment, a test of institutional resolve, and proof of whether Bitcoin’s destiny is tied to the world’s fears—or destined to rise above them.

Ready to Take Control of Your Crypto Journey? Start Trading Safely on BYDFi

As debates over privacy, innovation, and regulatory freedom continue to shape America’s crypto future, one truth remains: your ability to buy, trade, and build wealth in crypto shouldn’t depend on politics.

Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned investor, BYDFi gives you the tools to trade with confidence — low fees, fast execution, copy trading for newcomers, and access to hundreds of digital assets in a secure, user-friendly environment.

1- Safe.
2- Fast.
3-  Low Fees.
4- Built for beginners and pros.

Start your crypto journey today — Buy Bitcoin and top altcoins now on BYDFi.

创建答案