Bitcoin: Will Trump's ceasefire extension keep BTC price range-bound?

Bitcoin stalls as buyers and sellers pull back, leaving the market primed for a sharp move

After the ceasefire deadline expired on April 8, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire period without specifying another deadline. The extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire reduced tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, lowering the risk of an immediate supply shock.

As oil fell from $110 to $94–$95, Bitcoin [BTC] lost its crisis-driven bid, which slowed reactive flows. This shift pushed markets away from hedge demand and back toward macro-driven positioning. As pressure faded, DVOL dropped below 46, implying that the market has cooled off from a high-volatility state to compression.

Implied volatility remained near 43%, while 7-day Realized Volatility stayed around 32%. This gap implied that risk was overpriced, which encouraged range-bound trading. This explains why BTC remained held between $75k and $78k , as conviction weakened. Meanwhile, flat Funding Rates and roughly $25 billion in Open Interest (OI) in 24 hours as of press time showed leverage declined, which kept markets stable but delayed expansion.

Fading demand keeps Bitcoin range-bound

As volatility cooled, the expected follow-through from buyers never arrived, which left Bitcoin without upward momentum. The Coinbase Premium Index turned slightly positive on April 21, suggesting modest U.S. institutional interest, yet this hasn't translated into aggressive expansion.

As this weakness persisted, ETF inflows have slowed to $250 million from over $900 million , which signals institutional support shifted from expansion to stabilization. Meanwhile, daily volume held near $2.29 billion, which reflected hesitation rather than conviction.

Moreover, the downside also remained limited, which explains the lack of breakdown. MVRV held near 1.40 , so holders stayed in profit without urgency to sell. As the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) hovered near 1.00 , participants avoided losses and small gains, which reinforced holding behavior. This balance kept Bitcoin range-bound, delaying decisive moves.

Coiled spring forms as smart money stays sidelined

As volatility cooled, smart money stepped back from aggressive positioning, which left Bitcoin without a clear directional push. In fact, the OTC Unrealized Profit Ratio near 0.1383 remained far below the global MVRV at 1.40. This meant that miners had little incentive to sell, and this suppressed downside pressure.

Binance inflows also stayed low , confirming older coins remained inactive. This imbalance created a coiled spring , as supply stayed locked while demand hesitated, which set up a sharp move once a macro trigger returns.

The combination of:

• Falling volatility (DVOL below 46)
• Declining leverage (flat funding, stable OI)
• Slowing ETF inflows ($250M vs $900M previously)
• Locked supply (low exchange inflows, miners not selling)

...creates a market structure that is waiting, not trending. Direction will likely be determined by the next macro catalyst, not by internal momentum.

Three possible scenarios for Bitcoin

What to watch in the coming weeks

1. Volatility metrics – If DVOL falls further below 40, compression is deepening. A spike above 55 would signal an expansion event.

2. ETF flows – A return to $500M+ daily inflows would suggest institutional conviction returning. Continued sub-$300M flows favor range continuation.

3. Oil prices – The ceasefire extension dropped oil from $110 to $94–$95. Any reversal higher would reintroduce crisis-driven demand for Bitcoin.

4. Open Interest direction – OI building without price movement often precedes a squeeze. Watch for OI growth above $30B.

5. The $75k level – This is the line in the sand. A daily close below $75k would likely accelerate selling toward $70k–$72k.

Final summary

• Bitcoin remained trapped in a volatility compression phase, as weak demand and declining leverage kept the price locked between $75k and $78k despite easing macro pressure.
• BTC was in a coiled spring setup , where inactive supply and sidelined capital build pressure for a sharp move once a macro catalyst returns.

Note: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Always do your own research before trading. Geopolitical events can produce rapid, unpredictable price moves.